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When comparing the efficacy of two treatments in a clinical trial, or when following up two groups in an observational study, four outcomes are possible: 1) the study detects a “true” difference; 2) the study finds a difference, but there is no “true” difference (alpha error); 3) the study finds no difference, and there is none; and 4) the study demonstrates no difference, but there is a “true” difference (beta error). The P value indicates the probability of alpha error (outcome #1 vs #2), and is calculated …
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