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If there is a “79% reduction in the proportion of families with an affected contact,” how many families will you have to treat in order to prevent one case of flu? On first glance, it looks like 4 families out of 5 will benefit, but a closer look reveals that only one family in 7 will have a case of flu prevented. Why is this? This occurs because only 20% of families were going to be affected anyway, so even if the drug were 100% …
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